While United States parliamentary House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has declined, so far, to forward the articles of impeachment to the Senate as she asks for assurances of a fair trial, investors are pretty much sure that it is unlikely that the Upper House will remove President Donald Trump from the Presidency.
Analysts note that, in large part, the markets remain unmoved by the results of voting in the Lower House which resulted in his impeachment on Wednesday, December 18.
Voting nearly along party lines, the House of Representatives approved two articles of impeachment , which in summary charged him in relation to allegations of pressuring the Ukraine to investigate a potential rival in the 2020 presidential election.
Subsequent to the vote, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer failed to reach an agreement on the structure for the Senate trial, causing the delay in document hand over as Congress breaks for the holidays.
The president, under the Constitution, can be removed from office for “Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
In impeachment proceedings the only penalties upon conviction are removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honour, trust or profit under the United States.
The successful impeachment makes Trump the third president in history to face removal by the Senate.
For the record, no president has ever been removed as a direct result of impeachment. One, Richard Nixon, resigned before he could be removed. Two, Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton, were impeached by the House but not convicted by the Senate.
When this matter goes to the Senate, the trial will be overseen by the US Supreme Court Chief Justice.
It requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate to force a president from office. In this case, the Republicans are in control of that chamber.
Of the 100 current senators, 53 are Republican, 45 are Democratic and two are Independents.
Investors by their reactions in the markets, meanwhile, appear to say that the outcome is already fixed, in a Republican party-dominated Senate.
Other analysts surmise that a possible removal would have an excellent outturn for the trade war, thereby positively impacting the markets.
Altogether, investors do not appear to be upset by the turn of events.
Investment strategists say investors expect the Republican-controlled Senate to acquit President Trump.
Stocks have been gaining since October 31 when the House first voted to conduct impeachment proceedings against the president. The analysts say it’s because they fully expect that he will not be removed from office.
On the other hand, analysts also note that the impeachment should not have any negative impacts on fiscal or monetary policy, and could have positive developments, like the China trade deal and bipartisan support for a new NAFTA.
As it currently stands, investors appear to be focusing on economic fundamentals such as earnings, labour indicators and others which are separately and collectively, in the right place.