Latin America and the Caribbean’s foreign trade will experience a sharp drop of 23 per cent in 2020 – exceeding the 21 per cent decline recorded during the 2009 financial crisis – as a result of the economic effects arising from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, ECLAC indicated in a report last week.
At a press conference Friday, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Alicia Bárcena, unveiled the institution’s Special Report COVID-19 No. 6, entitled ‘The effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on international trade and logistics’.
The report forecasts that the value of regional exports will contract -23 per cent this year while imports will shrink -25 per cent, a figure that also exceeds the -24 per cent recorded during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
This decline is taking place in a global context in which international trade accumulated a 17 per cent drop in volume between January and May 2020. Latin America and the Caribbean is the developing region most affected by this situation, and it will be marked mainly by reduced shipments of manufactured goods, minerals and fuel.
The collapse of tourism (-50 per cent) will drag down service exports, especially from the Caribbean, while intraregional trade will also undergo a sharp contraction of -23.9 per cent, affecting manufactured goods in particular. All of this will lead to a loss of industrial capacity and a reprimarisation of the region’s export basket, the report warns.
“Deepening regional integration is crucial to emerge from this crisis. With pragmatism, we must rekindle the vision of an integrated Latin American market. In addition, the region must reduce costs through efficient, smooth and secure logistics,” Alicia Bárcena stated while presenting the report.
According to ECLAC’s document, the value of the region’s goods exports and imports declined by 17 per cent between January and May 2020 compared with the same period of 2019. Both flows plunged towards the end of that five-month period in 2020, with a 37 per cent year-on-year drop in May alone.
In the first five months of this year, sharp declines were seen in the value of Latin American and Caribbean shipments to the United States (-22.2 per cent), the European Union (-14.3 per cent) and within the region (-23.9 per cent), which together absorbed 69 per cent of its total goods exports in 2019.
In contrast, shipments to Asia have shown greater resilience. In particular, exports to China fell less than two per cent between January and May and recovered in April and May, in line with that economy’s gradual reopening, which constitutes a positive sign, especially for South American countries that export commodities.
For 2020 as a whole, it is forecast that the biggest contraction in regional exports will be seen among those bound for the United States (-32 per cent) and within the region (-28 per cent), while shipments to China are expected to fall by just -4 per cent.
In analysing the region’s sectors, the greatest decline between January and May versus the same period of 2019 was seen in mining and oil (-25.8 per cent), followed by manufactured goods (-18.5 per cent). In contrast, the sector of agricultural and livestock products notched a slight increase of 0.9 per cent. This reflects that demand for food is less sensitive to contractions in economic activity, since it is an essential good, the report indicates.
On a country level, ECLAC’s report states that only four nations – all of them in Central America – saw their exports rise between January and May 2020: Costa Rica (two per cent), Honduras (two per cent), Guatemala (three per cent) and Nicaragua (14 %). This is due to a combination of greater sales of medical supplies and personal protective gear (especially masks) and of agricultural products (the demand for which has been less affected by the pandemic), along with the relative resilience exhibited by intra-Central American trade.
Meanwhile, imports during this same period fell in all countries (-17.1 per cent in the regional average value), due to the deep recession that the region is undergoing. Particularly worrisome is the contraction in the importation of capital goods and intermediate inputs (-14.5 per cent and -13.6 per cent, respectively), which will affect the investment rate and will compromise the recovery, the publication warns.
Regional air traffic suffered a true collapse in this period: -95 per cent in terms of passengers and -46 per cent for cargo, following the global trend, while the closure of production-related activities, stricter health measures and administrative obstacles have also served to slow land transportation.